Shrinking pie in times of conflict: evidence from India’s Jammu and Kashmir

Vaibhav, Vikash and Verma, Akhilesh K. (2025) Shrinking pie in times of conflict: evidence from India’s Jammu and Kashmir. Oxford Development Studies. pp. 1-23. ISSN 1360-0818

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Abstract

This paper analyses the economic repercussions of persistent terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) and explores the role of credit supply as a transmission channel between terrorism and economic activity. First, we estimate the direct economic cost of terrorism by constructing a ‘synthetic’ counterfactual of J&K. Our findings indicate that, in the absence of terrorism, J&K’s economy would have been more than one and a half times its current size. This translates to a depressed annual growth of 2.4% of over a quarter-century and a starker loss of 3.7% in per capita terms. Second, we show that terrorism contracts credit supply leading to reduced economic activity captured by night lights data. We further estimate the implications of terrorism on sectoral credit allocation and regional heterogeneity – personal credit and agricultural credit contracted more than industrial credit and the Kashmir region suffered a greater impact of terrorism than the Jammu region.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: Kashmir | terrorism | synthetic control | credit supply | night lights
Subjects: Social Sciences and humanities > Economics, Econometrics and Finance > Econometrics
Social Sciences and humanities > Economics, Econometrics and Finance > Economics
JGU School/Centre: Jindal School of Liberal Arts & Humanities
Depositing User: Mr. Gautam Kumar
Date Deposited: 21 May 2025 10:04
Last Modified: 21 May 2025 10:04
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/13600818.2025.2507259
URI: https://pure.jgu.edu.in/id/eprint/9555

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