Rooj, Debasis, Saha, Asish, Sengupta, Reshmi and Banerjee, Anurag (2025) The impact of financial stress on house price expectations: Evidence from survey data. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis. ISSN 1753-8270 (In Press)
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Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate the impact of financial stress on house price expectations using unit-level observations from novel survey data.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use household-level data from the Inflation Expectation Survey of Households of the Reserve Bank of India and the Financial Stress Index (FSI) released by Tracking Asian Integration of the Asian Development Bank. The authors exploit the variations in household price expectations and estimate the impact of lagged FSI on house price expectations.
Findings
The authors find that increased financial stress results in lower house price expectations and has a stronger impact for the near term vis-à-vis a year ahead. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that a rise in FSI leads to increased expectations of house prices among women. Expectations are lower for the older population and people with less income stability. Asymmetric analysis reveals that house price expectations are more sensitive to high financial stress, offering new insights into the cyclical nature of housing sentiment. Moreover, the equity market and the foreign exchange market have the highest negative impact on house price expectations during financial stress.
Practical implications
The findings of the association between financial stability, housing prices and credit and house price expectations have crucial implications for the central bank.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to examine the impact of FSI on house price expectations observational data. The authors also uncover the heterogenous impact of FSI based on the socio-economic characteristics of the households. The authors further explore the asymmetric and disaggregated impact of FSI on house price expectations.
Item Type: | Article |
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Keywords: | Housing market analysis | Housing policy | Financial stress | Financial stability | Asymmetric analysis | House price expectations |
Subjects: | Social Sciences and humanities > Economics, Econometrics and Finance > Banking and Finance Social Sciences and humanities > Social Sciences > Social Sciences (General) |
JGU School/Centre: | Jindal School of Banking and Finance |
Depositing User: | Users 37 not found. |
Date Deposited: | 07 Apr 2025 12:18 |
Last Modified: | 07 Apr 2025 12:18 |
Official URL: | https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-01-2025-0012 |
URI: | https://pure.jgu.edu.in/id/eprint/9344 |
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