Rooj, Debasis, Sengupta, Reshmi and Banerjee, Anurag (2025) The impact of financial stress on consumer confidence: Evidence from survey data. Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies. ISSN 2515-964X (In Press)
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Abstract
Purpose
This paper explores the impact of financial stress (FS) on consumer confidence (CC) using survey data.
Design/methodology/approach
We use novel household-level survey data on CC by the Reserve Bank of India. FS data come from the financial stress index (FSI) released by the Tracking Asian Integration of Asian Development Bank. The sample period is 2015–2023. We align the lagged monthly values of FSI with the household-level data to uncover the impact of FS on household confidence in the economy.
Findings
Rising FS leads to increased pessimism among households regarding the state of the economy. Educated and well-off households are more sensitive to FS. Moreover, FS significantly impacts confidence regarding households’ own consumption basket and economic scenarios. A disaggregated analysis reveals that FS related to foreign exchange and debt spread causes greater pessimism among households than in the equity market and banking sector. Additionally, the impacts of FS are asymmetric, with above-average FS lowering household attitudes, while below-average FS increases optimism about the economy’s outlook.
Originality/value
To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to examine the impact of FS on household CC using household-level data for an emerging economy such as India. Micro-level data allow us to explore the impact of FS on household perceptions of current economic situations and future outlooks. We also uncover the impact of FS on households’ confidence in their own economic outcomes.
Item Type: | Article |
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Subjects: | Social Sciences and humanities > Economics, Econometrics and Finance > Banking and Finance Social Sciences and humanities > Social Sciences > Social Sciences (General) |
JGU School/Centre: | Jindal School of Banking and Finance |
Depositing User: | Dharmveer Modi |
Date Deposited: | 24 Feb 2025 13:20 |
Last Modified: | 24 Feb 2025 13:20 |
Official URL: | https://doi.org/10.1108/JABES-07-2024-0344 |
URI: | https://pure.jgu.edu.in/id/eprint/9158 |
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