Is geopolitical risk always detrimental to economic growth?

Jha, Saakshi, Bhushan, Sunny and Nirola, Nupur (2024) Is geopolitical risk always detrimental to economic growth? Economic Change and Restructuring. ISSN 1574-0277 | 1573-9414 (In Press)

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Abstract

In the recent past, geopolitical tension has taken center stage in defining macroeconomic dynamics. Given that, this study examines the impact of geopolitical risk on economic growth for 41 countries from 2000 to 2020. Our panel estimations using the feasible generalized least square (FGLS) technique show that geopolitical risk positively and significantly impacts economic growth. The results are consistent even after addressing endogeneity concerns using system GMM and auto-correlated explanatory growth variables using the PCSE estimation. Our results indicate that a percent increase in geopolitical risk increases economic growth to 3.3%. For the cohort of advanced and emerging economies, our result shows that the advanced economies can better mitigate any geopolitical shocks and experience favorable growth rates. On the other hand, emerging economies posit a detrimental impact of geopolitical risk on their economic growth, thereby indicating an asymmetric effect between the two sets of economies. Further, macroeconomic conditions and institutional factors play a significant role in determining the impact of geopolitical risk on the economic growth of 41 countries. In the presence of institutional factors like democracy and economic freedom, the relationship between geopolitical risk and economic growth remains intact. In the context of geopolitical risk, these institutional factors stimulate economic growth

Item Type: Article
Keywords: Geopolitical risk | Economic growth | FGLS | System GMM | Macroeconomic instability | Varieties of democracy
Subjects: Social Sciences and humanities > Economics, Econometrics and Finance > Econometrics
Social Sciences and humanities > Economics, Econometrics and Finance > Economics
JGU School/Centre: Jindal School of International Affairs
Depositing User: Subhajit Bhattacharjee
Date Deposited: 12 Feb 2024 11:47
Last Modified: 13 Feb 2024 09:50
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-024-09585-1
URI: https://pure.jgu.edu.in/id/eprint/7304

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