The electoral legacies of civil war violence: Theory and evidence from a maoist-affected state in India

Ray, Subhasish and Nath, Suman (2023) The electoral legacies of civil war violence: Theory and evidence from a maoist-affected state in India. Studies in Comparative International Development. ISSN 1936-6167 (In Press)

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Abstract

The literature on the electoral legacies of civil war violence offers a puzzle. While one strand of research argues that indiscriminate rebel violence will have no effect on the electoral success of rebel-aligned parties, another argues that such violence will harden anti-rebel political attitudes in the long term. This article reconciles these conflicting predictions by examining post-conflict political attitudes over the short and medium term. We hypothesize that the organizational weaknesses that both underpin and result from indiscriminate rebel violence during civil war will constrain the vote mobilization strategies of rebel-aligned parties in post-civil war elections, eventually leading to a reversal of fortune in the medium term. We assess our hypothesis in the empirical context of the state of West Bengal in India, whose southwestern districts, collectively known as Junglemahal, experienced a spell of Maoist insurgency from 2005–2014. Taking a mixed methods approach, combining surveys across West Bengal and within Junglemahal with ethnographic research, we show that voter assessments of pre-election violence had changed sharply between the 2016 legislative assembly and 2019 parliamentary elections with violence triggering a backlash against the rebel-aligned incumbent party in 2019, but not in 2016.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: Elections and Voting | Public Opinion | Political Attitudes | Civil War | Civil War Violence | Insurgency | Rebel Organizations | Political Parties | Security Voting | Clientelism | Election Violence | Post-Confict Reconstruction | Maoist Insurgency | South Asia | India | West Bengal
Subjects: Social Sciences and humanities > Social Sciences > Social Sciences (General)
JGU School/Centre: Jindal School of Government and Public Policy
Depositing User: Amees Mohammad
Date Deposited: 21 Feb 2023 06:16
Last Modified: 21 Feb 2023 06:16
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12116-023-09389-w
URI: https://pure.jgu.edu.in/id/eprint/5613

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