Nexus between macroeconomic uncertainty, oil prices, and exports: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression approach

Dagar, Vishal and Malik, Sakshi (2023) Nexus between macroeconomic uncertainty, oil prices, and exports: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30 (16). pp. 48363-48374. ISSN 1614-7499

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Abstract

International trade is key to boosting the economic growth and development of an economy. Hence, it becomes critical to analyze its determinants. The present study attempts to empirically analyze the determinants of trade exports of Pakistan with its top-5 trade partners. The prior literature suffers from biased findings due to deploying the aggregate data and ignoring the likely asymmetries in the drivers of the exports. The present study has used the monthly data of oil prices and macroeconomic uncertainty in order to empirically investigate the determinants of exports. For the purpose of analysis, several advanced econometric (quantile unit root, cointegration, and granger causality) tests and (quantile-on-quantile regression) techniques are utilized to handle the issue of asymmetries in the modeled series. The findings reveal a positive and significant relationship between oil prices in Pakistan and exports. Furthermore, macroeconomic uncertainty has a significantly negative impact on the country’s exports. Based on the results, key policy implications are provided.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: Oil Prices | Macroeconomic Uncertainty | Quantile-On-Quantile Regression
Subjects: Social Sciences and humanities > Social Sciences > Social Sciences (General)
JGU School/Centre: Jindal Global Business School
Depositing User: Amees Mohammad
Date Deposited: 14 Feb 2023 06:32
Last Modified: 18 May 2023 11:02
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-25574-9
URI: https://pure.jgu.edu.in/id/eprint/5594

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