Ray, Subhasish, Patil, Ankin and Vidya, K. Sree (2021) Mental health and political attitudes after COVID-19 shock: Evidence from India. In: 2021 Annual Meeting of the World Association of Public Opinion Research, Asia Chapter, 16-17 November, 2021, Bangkok, Thailand.
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Abstract
Are voters willing to punish incumbents for adverse changes in mental health induced by policy decisions? This paper examines this question in the empirical context of the controversial lockdown imposed by the central government of India in March 2020 in the midst of the first wave of COVID-19. Using data from three waves of a geographically representative mental health survey in India, conducted in the first, second, and third week of June 2020, respectively, we find, that among respondents who voted for the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2019 national election, the incidence of lockdown-induced mental health challenges was positively correlated with the intention to switch votes (if a hypothetical national election were to be held on the day of the survey) when the central government was primarily (Wave 1) or partially (Wave 2) responsible for pandemic management, and uncorrelated with the same when primary responsibility for pandemic management had visibly shifted to state governments (Wave 3). However, in contrast to the national level, the evidence for accurate responsibility attribution at the sub-national level is weak. In particular, our analysis reveals a “second order election” effect in BJP ruled states. Among the respondents in these states who voted for the BJP in the previous state elections, the incidence of lockdown-induced mental stress was positively correlated with the intention to switch votes (if hypothetical state elections were to be held on the day of the survey) when responsibility for pandemic management was primarily vested in the central government (Wave 1), and negatively correlated with the same when primary responsibility for pandemic management had visibly shifted to state governments (Wave 3).
Item Type: | Conference or Workshop Item (Paper) |
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Keywords: | COVID-19 | Election analysis | Mental Health Survey |
Subjects: | Social Sciences and humanities > Social Sciences > Social Sciences (General) Social Sciences and humanities > Social Sciences > Health (Social sciences) Social Sciences and humanities > Social Sciences > Political Science |
JGU School/Centre: | Jindal School of Government and Public Policy |
Depositing User: | Subhajit Bhattacharjee |
Date Deposited: | 07 Jul 2022 10:08 |
Last Modified: | 31 Aug 2022 09:18 |
Official URL: | https://wapor.org/events/regional-thematic-confere... |
URI: | https://pure.jgu.edu.in/id/eprint/3647 |
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