Gupta, Peeyush, Shekhar, M. Sudhanshu, Singh, Gyan Prakash, Gupta, Dev Sen, Kumar, Amit, Kumar, Rupesh
and Tomar, Dharmendra Singh
(2026)
Assimilation of Doppler weather radar data into WRF model using 3DVAR and 4DVAR assimilation methods for enhanced weather forecasting in the eastern Himalayas.
Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 142: 104292.
pp. 1-17.
ISSN 1474-7065
Assimilation of Doppler weather radar data into WRF model using 3DVAR and 4DVAR assimilation methods for enhanced weather forecasting in the eastern Himalayas.pdf - Published Version
Restricted to Repository staff only
Download (23MB) | Request a copy
Abstract
Severe weather in hilly regions like the Eastern Himalayas poses significant risks to life and natural resources due to complex and varied topography within small geographic areas. This study explores the integration of Dual-Polarization Weather Radar (DWR) data into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to evaluate the performance of two data assimilation techniques (3DVar and 4DVar) in predicting heavy rainfall events. Reflectivity and radial velocity measurements from an X-Band DWR were assimilated to quantitatively assess their impact on precipitation forecasts. Simulations were conducted for two heavy rainfall events in August 2023 at spatial resolutions of 9-km and 3-km, each over three days. Forecast accuracy was measured using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and RSR, where lower values indicate better performance. Results show that decreasing grid spacing from 9-km to 3-km improves prediction accuracy. RMSE for RH at 9 km_CTRL is 8.09 % and for 3 km_CTRL is 7.10 %. Similarly, for T2 at 9 km_CTRL, RMSE is 3.38oC, and for 3 km_CTRL is 2.71oC. RMSE for precipitation at 9 km_CTRL is 20.80 mm and for 3 km_CTRL is 12.78 mm. The lowest RMSE is observed for the 4DVar experiment for all three variables, where RMSE is 8.50 %, 2.54oC, and 2.66 mm for RH, T2 and precipitation. RSR value is lowest for the 3 km_4DVar experiment as compared to other experiments for all the variables. These findings highlight that integrating radar data via 4DVar assimilation markedly improves heavy rainfall forecasting, especially at higher resolutions. This approach holds strong potential to support disaster management and mitigation efforts in the vulnerable Himalayan region.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Keywords: | WRF model | Sikkim Himalayas | Socio-economic stability | Mitigation strategies | Disaster risks |
| Subjects: | Physical, Life and Health Sciences > Earth and Planetary Sciences |
| JGU School/Centre: | Jindal Global Business School |
| Depositing User: | Mrs Tulika Kumar |
| Date Deposited: | 14 Jan 2026 10:08 |
| Last Modified: | 14 Jan 2026 10:08 |
| Official URL: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2026.104292 |
| URI: | https://pure.jgu.edu.in/id/eprint/10669 |
Downloads
Downloads per month over past year
Dimensions
Dimensions