Investigating the Influence of Twitter Economic Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk on Clean Cryptocurrency Returns

Agarwal, Jhalak, Sharma, Sudhi, Bhardwaj, Indira, -, Reepu and Aggarwal, Vaibhav (2025) Investigating the Influence of Twitter Economic Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk on Clean Cryptocurrency Returns. In: 2025 9th International Conference on Information Technology (InCIT), 12-14 November 2025, Phuket, Thailand.

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Abstract

This study examines the joint effects of Twitter- based economic uncertainty (TEU) and geopolitical risk (GPR) on the returns of selected clean (energy-efficient) cryptocurrencies. We consider seven environmentally friendly cryptocurrencies over the period January 2018 to April 2023. Using a combination of descriptive statistics, quantile regression, and wavelet coherence analysis, we investigate how changes in the Twitter-based Uncertainty Index (TEU-USA) and the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPRD) influence cryptocurrency returns. Descriptive analysis reveals that these cryptocurrencies have near-zero average returns but differ markedly in volatility and tail risk. The quantile regression results indicate that higher geopolitical risk is associated with significant effects on certain cryptocurrencies during extreme market conditions, whereas Twitter-based uncertainty generally shows negligible impact. Wavelet coherence analysis further shows intermittent short-term coherence and moderate long- term correlation between GPRD and cryptocurrency returns, while the TEU-USA index exhibits weak and sporadic influence. These findings suggest that clean cryptocurrencies exhibit relative resilience to social-media-driven economic sentiment but remain sensitive to major geopolitical events. The results offer valuable insights for investors and policymakers concerned with the risk and diversification properties of green digital assets.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Keywords: Economics | Uncertainty | Social networking (online) | Green products | Blogs
Subjects: Social Sciences and humanities > Business, Management and Accounting > Business and International Management
Physical, Life and Health Sciences > Mathematics
Physical, Life and Health Sciences > Environmental Science, Policy and Law
JGU School/Centre: Jindal Global Business School
Depositing User: Mr. Gautam Kumar
Date Deposited: 17 Dec 2025 10:42
Last Modified: 17 Dec 2025 10:42
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1109/InCIT66780.2025.11275994
URI: https://pure.jgu.edu.in/id/eprint/10507

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