Does foreign currency borrowing make firms vulnerable? Experience of emerging India

Sur, Abhisek, Nandy, Amarendu and Ray, Partha (2024) Does foreign currency borrowing make firms vulnerable? Experience of emerging India. Journal of Policy Modeling. ISSN 0161-8938 (In Press)

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Abstract

The Asian Financial Crisis during the late 1990 s revealed the fault lines of foreign currency loans of corporates. It starkly demonstrated that a combination of semi-pegged exchange rates and unregulated foreign currency borrowing could expose corporates and, subsequently, the entire economy to heightened vulnerability. To mitigate these risks, implementing certain capital account restrictions emerged as a potential remedy. Against this backdrop, this paper investigates the changing contours of vulnerability arising from the rising foreign currency leverage of 818 non-financial corporates in India during 2004–2022. In particular, this paper examines the impact of exchange rate shocks and changes in certain key macroeconomic policy variables on the financial vulnerabilities of these firms. Our findings unequivocally indicate that during exchange rate depreciation, unhedged exposures significantly amplified the vulnerability of Indian firms. While our study centres on India, the overarching conclusions and insights derived from our analysis possess broader ramifications for emerging economies grappling with capital account restrictions. The policy implications of our research underscore the need to proactively strengthen the macroprudential toolkit to address the risks associated with foreign currency borrowing and ensure more robust risk management practices to prevent the buildup of systemic vulnerabilities.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: Foreign currency borrowing | Corporate vulnerability | Exchange rate shocks | Corporate leverage | India
Subjects: Social Sciences and humanities > Economics, Econometrics and Finance > Econometrics
Social Sciences and humanities > Economics, Econometrics and Finance > Economics
JGU School/Centre: Jindal Global Law School
Depositing User: Subhajit Bhattacharjee
Date Deposited: 14 Feb 2024 10:23
Last Modified: 14 Feb 2024 10:23
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.003
URI: https://pure.jgu.edu.in/id/eprint/7316

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