Should I stay or should I go now? Or should I wait and see? Influences on wildfire evacuation decisions

McCaffrey, Sarah, Wilson, Robyn and Konar, Avishek (2018) Should I stay or should I go now? Or should I wait and see? Influences on wildfire evacuation decisions. Risk Analysis, 38 (7). pp. 1390-1404. ISSN 02724332

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Abstract

As climate change has contributed to longer fire seasons and populations living in fire-prone ecosystems increase, wildfires have begun to affect a growing number of people. As a result, interest in understanding the wildfire evacuation decision process has increased. Of particular interest is understanding why some people leave early, some choose to stay and defend their homes, and others wait to assess conditions before making a final decision. Individuals who tend to wait and see are of particular concern given the dangers of late evacuation. To understand what factors might influence different decisions, we surveyed homeowners in three areas in the United States that recently experienced a wildfire. The Protective Action Decision Model was used to identify a suite of factors previously identified as potentially relevant to evacuation decisions. Our results indicate that different beliefs about the efficacy of a particular response or action (evacuating or staying to defend), differences in risk attitudes, and emphasis on different cues to act (e.g., official warnings, environmental cues) are key factors underlying different responses. Further, latent class analysis indicates there are two general classes of individuals: those inclined to evacuate and those inclined to stay, and that a substantial portion of each class falls into the wait and see category.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: Decision making | Evacuation | Risk attitudes | Wildfires
Subjects: Social Sciences and humanities > Decision Sciences > General Decision Sciences
JGU School/Centre: Jindal Global Law School
Depositing User: Mr Sombir Dahiya
Date Deposited: 23 Dec 2021 07:02
Last Modified: 12 Jan 2022 14:50
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12944
Additional Information: We would like to thank the local fire managers in our study locations who assisted with identifying study locations, as well as all respondents who took time to answer the survey. The research was conducted while the first author worked for the Northern Research Station of the USDA Forest Service and the third author worked for The Ohio State University
URI: https://pure.jgu.edu.in/id/eprint/355

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