Cross-tier incumbency spillovers: evidence from India

Saharan, Ajay ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0005-6226-3441 and Yadav, Shraddha (2026) Cross-tier incumbency spillovers: evidence from India. Public Choice. Springer . ISSN 0048-5829 (In Press) Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-026-01457-8

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Abstract

We study cross-tier legislative incumbency spillovers in non-concurrent elections, a relatively understudied dimension of multi-level electoral politics in federal systems. Using a regression discontinuity design with comprehensive election data from India covering parliamentary elections (1999–2019) and state assembly elections (1994–2023), we find significant bidirectional negative spillovers. Having an incumbent member of parliament reduces the probability of that party’s candidate winning in subsequent state assembly elections by 7.2 percentage points (or by 17.6%), within that parliamentary constituency (Top-down spillover). Similarly, having an incumbent Member of the Legislative Assembly reduces the party’s vote share in subsequent parliamentary elections by 2.4 percentage points (or by 6.5%), in that assembly constituency (Bottom-up spillover). Effects are concentrated among centralized parties, non-switching candidates, and both ruling and opposition parties. Spillovers are stronger in less developed states and when elections occur within 2.5 years of each other.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Cross-tier Incumbency spillovers | Multi-tier elections | RDD | India
Subjects: Social Sciences and humanities > Social Sciences > Political Science
Social Sciences and humanities > Social Sciences > Research and Theory
Depositing User: Mr. Syed Anas Ali
Date Deposited: 22 Sep 2026 09:05
Last Modified: 24 Sep 2026 05:49
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-026-01457-8
URI: https://pure.jgu.edu.in/id/eprint/12652

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