Political risk and stock markets: Evidence from 2024 Indian National Elections

Tripathi, Abhinava, Jindal, Lagan ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9506-6293 and Jha, Ravi Raushan (2026) Political risk and stock markets: Evidence from 2024 Indian National Elections. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 100: 103346. Elsevier B.V. . ISSN 0927538X Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103346

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Abstract

Following the seminal works of Pastor & Veronesi (2012, 2013, and 2020), we examine and quantify a novel source of political risk for the largest democracy India – “failure to form the government.” Leveraging the surprise exit poll and actual election results from the 2024 Indian national elections and stock market reactions to these results, we answer the following questions: (1) Why did stock markets behave in this peculiar manner? (2) Which industry sectors were the most and least sensitive to political risk? (3) How can domestic and global investors benefit from these results? Overall, this behavior of Indian stock markets can be traced back to the unique nature of the coalition form of parliamentary democracy in India, engendering a unique political risk of “failure to form the government.” We also demonstrate that a simple sector-rotation-based strategy can yield cumulative returns of 6%–12% within a 20-day window surrounding election results. Our results dispel the conventional notion that Indian stock markets favor one party or coalition over another.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Political uncertainty | Election uncertainty | Indian national election 2024 | Industry returns | Political event portfolios
Subjects: Social Sciences and humanities > Economics, Econometrics and Finance > Banking and Finance
Social Sciences and humanities > Economics, Econometrics and Finance > Economics
Social Sciences and humanities > Social Sciences > Political Science
Vol/Issue no. published date: September 2026
Depositing User: Mr. Syed Anas Ali
Date Deposited: 26 Aug 2026 06:52
Last Modified: 26 Aug 2026 06:52
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103346
URI: https://pure.jgu.edu.in/id/eprint/12318

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