Machine Learning Applications for Predicting Portfolio Returns in Indian Stock Market

Kumar, Modish, Sharma, Prashant ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4929-1809, Manuj, Hemant Kumar ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1500-8860, Pandey, Dayanand ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0006-7872-2785 and Jindal, Padmini (2026) Machine Learning Applications for Predicting Portfolio Returns in Indian Stock Market. In: Soft Computing: Theories and Applications Proceedings of SoCTA 2025. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, vol. 1, no. 1890. Springer, Cham. pp. 168-182. ISBN 9783032263704 Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-26370-4_15

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Abstract

This study analyses the performance of prediction of returns as per four Fama-French factors (market risk premium, size, value, and momentum) on six Indian portfolios (SV, SN, SG, BV, BN, BG). The study employs models based on advanced machine learning (ML) assembling techniques, namely XGBoost, LightGBM, Random Forest and Support Vector Regression (SVR) along with linear models, Ridge, and Lasso. The outputs from these models are compared with those derived from traditional OLS regression. The purpose is to evaluate the performance of factor-based models using advance machine learning algorithmic approaches. The relative contribution of each factor across models is highlighted using feature importance and SHAP value analysis. This study demonstrates that machine learning based models enhance the prediction accuracy of returns from factor portfolios, in general. However, for the large cap portfolios (BV, BN, BG), linear models like Ridge, Lasso and OLS regression perform better in explaining the variance. For the majority of models, market risk premium emerges as a consistently strong predictor. The study contributes to the existing body of literature by applying asset price theories to modern data-driven modelling in emerging markets.

Item Type: Book Section
Uncontrolled Keywords: Asset Pricing | XGBoost | LightGBM | Random Forest | Machine Learning | Linear Models | Emerging market
Subjects: Social Sciences and humanities > Economics, Econometrics and Finance > Banking and Finance
Physical, Life and Health Sciences > Computer Science
Depositing User: Mr. Syed Anas Ali
Date Deposited: 10 Aug 2026 06:13
Last Modified: 10 Aug 2026 06:13
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-26370-4_15
URI: https://pure.jgu.edu.in/id/eprint/12158

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