Spatio-temporal variability of land cover dynamics and land degradation vulnerability using cellular automata and Artificial Neural Networks

Thakur, Tarun Kumar, Patel, Digvesh Kumar, Eripogu, Kiran Kumar, Maharathi, Payal, Thakur, Anita, Kumar, Amit and Kumar, Rupesh ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6590-4313 (2026) Spatio-temporal variability of land cover dynamics and land degradation vulnerability using cellular automata and Artificial Neural Networks. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 144 (3): 104634. Elsevier Ltd . ISSN 1474-7065 Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2026.104634

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Abstract

In Central India, land-use and land-cover (LULC) transitions have intensified over the last three decades, driven by agricultural expansion, mining activity, and peri-urban growth. This study evaluates spatio-temporal LULC change dynamics (1994-2023) and projects future scenarios (2040-2060). In this study, we used a predictor-screened Cellular Automata (CA) integrated with the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) (CA-ANN) framework. Landsat-derived LULCC maps achieved high classification reliability (κ = 0.87-0.97). Between 1994 and 2023, forest cover declined by 0.91%, primarily transitioning to agricultural and scrubland classes, while built-up and barren land expanded steadily. Model validation yielded a κ value of 0.87, indicating strong agreement between simulated and observed LULC patterns. Future projections indicate continued contraction of scrubland (−1.94%) and forest (−1.19%) by 2060, accompanied by an increase in built-up (+1.32%), agricultural (+0.58%), and barren land (+1.63%). Land degradation vulnerability index (LDVI) mapping revealed that over half of the study area falls within moderate to high vulnerability zones, particularly across forest-agriculture transition belts and mining corridors. This integrated modelling framework provides spatially explicit evidence to guide restoration prioritization, landscape planning, and monitoring efforts aligned with land degradation neutrality targets.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Artificial Neural Network | Cellular automata | Land degradation vulnerability | Machine learning | Zero net land degradation
Subjects: Social Sciences and humanities > Business, Management and Accounting > Industrial relations
Physical, Life and Health Sciences > Agricultural science
Vol/Issue no. published date: October 2026
Depositing User: Mr. Syed Anas Ali
Date Deposited: 13 Jul 2026 04:19
Last Modified: 13 Jul 2026 04:19
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2026.104634
URI: https://pure.jgu.edu.in/id/eprint/11988

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