Thakur, Tarun Kumar, Patel, Digvesh Kumar, Eripogu, Kiran Kumar, Maharathi, Payal, Thakur, Anita, Kumar, Amit and Kumar, Rupesh
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6590-4313
(2026)
Spatio-temporal variability of land cover dynamics and land degradation vulnerability using cellular automata and Artificial Neural Networks.
Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 144 (3): 104634.
Elsevier Ltd
.
ISSN 1474-7065
Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2026.104634
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Abstract
In Central India, land-use and land-cover (LULC) transitions have intensified over the last three decades, driven by agricultural expansion, mining activity, and peri-urban growth. This study evaluates spatio-temporal LULC change dynamics (1994-2023) and projects future scenarios (2040-2060). In this study, we used a predictor-screened Cellular Automata (CA) integrated with the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) (CA-ANN) framework. Landsat-derived LULCC maps achieved high classification reliability (κ = 0.87-0.97). Between 1994 and 2023, forest cover declined by 0.91%, primarily transitioning to agricultural and scrubland classes, while built-up and barren land expanded steadily. Model validation yielded a κ value of 0.87, indicating strong agreement between simulated and observed LULC patterns. Future projections indicate continued contraction of scrubland (−1.94%) and forest (−1.19%) by 2060, accompanied by an increase in built-up (+1.32%), agricultural (+0.58%), and barren land (+1.63%). Land degradation vulnerability index (LDVI) mapping revealed that over half of the study area falls within moderate to high vulnerability zones, particularly across forest-agriculture transition belts and mining corridors. This integrated modelling framework provides spatially explicit evidence to guide restoration prioritization, landscape planning, and monitoring efforts aligned with land degradation neutrality targets.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Artificial Neural Network | Cellular automata | Land degradation vulnerability | Machine learning | Zero net land degradation |
| Subjects: | Social Sciences and humanities > Business, Management and Accounting > Industrial relations Physical, Life and Health Sciences > Agricultural science |
| Vol/Issue no. published date: | October 2026 |
| Depositing User: | Mr. Syed Anas Ali |
| Date Deposited: | 13 Jul 2026 04:19 |
| Last Modified: | 13 Jul 2026 04:19 |
| Official URL: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2026.104634 |
| URI: | https://pure.jgu.edu.in/id/eprint/11988 |
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