Inequality-Growth Relationship: A Bayesian Moving Average Approach

Roy, Subran ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6764-2815 and Sethi, Keshav (2025) Inequality-Growth Relationship: A Bayesian Moving Average Approach. [Preprint] (Unpublished) Available at: https://doi.org/10.54945/preserve.60

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Abstract

According to the existing literature, inequality may have a positive, negative, or no association with economic growth. There is still no clear consensus regarding the relationship between inequality and growth making this an active area of research. This study makes an attempt to decipher the impact of inequality on growth and address the issue of model uncertainty utilizing pertinent data on inequality for 56 countries for the time period 1999–2020. First, we document significant stylized facts between inequality and growth and then apply Bayesian Moving Average (BMA) method to examine whether inequality matters in the presence of major growth determinants. Our results indicate inequality does matter in the process of growth. Specifically, we find that inequality has an adverse impact on growth. The Posterior Inclusion Probability (PIP) of inequality greater than 0.76 across all models confirms the negative impact of inequality on growth. Our results withstand various robustness checks.

Item Type: Preprint
Uncontrolled Keywords: Inequality | Economic Growth | Model Uncetainty | Bayesian Moving Average
Subjects: Social Sciences and humanities > Economics, Econometrics and Finance > Economics
Social Sciences and humanities > Social Sciences > Social Sciences (General)
Social Sciences and humanities > Social Sciences > Sociology
Depositing User: Mr. Syed Anas Ali
Date Deposited: 07 Jul 2026 11:04
Last Modified: 07 Jul 2026 11:13
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.54945/preserve.60
URI: https://pure.jgu.edu.in/id/eprint/11951

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